Can the Greens win their first council this year?
Something seismic occurred in UK politics in May 2010. The tortuously difficult First Past the Post barrier was broken by a major political party as yet unrepresented at Westminster. Leader of the Green Party of England & Wales, Caroline Lucas, won Brighton Pavilion becoming her party's first MP. She will be followed in due course, no doubt. The Greens' most promising seat is Norwich South.
Along with local elections across England, Brighton & Hove unitary authority goes to the polls this May. The whole council is up for grabs, all 54 councillors or their replacement candidates, having to face the electorate.
Right now no party has a majority of ward seats. The dominant party are the Conservatives who run a minority administration.
The present Council looks like this:
25 Conservative
13 Green
13 Labour
1 Liberal Democrat
1 Independent
One seat is vacant, following the sad death last December of Cllr. David Smart who had held one of three seats in Hangleton & Knoll ward for the Conservatives.
Three wards are promising territory for the Greens: Brunswick & Adelaide (2 Councillors), Goldsmid (3 Councillors) and Preston Park (2 Councillors). Of the seven councillors mentioned, two are already Green. In all other wards where Greens have seats right now they hold all the council seats on offer. In Brunswick & Adelaide, where the party at presents holds neither, “Greens are in with a realistic chance of winning both seats”, according the reputable Brighton Politics Blog.
Labour has been under pressure for some time in Brighton. Lucas won her Pavilion parliamentary seat last May from them.
With the LibDem Paul Elgood predicted by Brighton Politics Blog to lose his council seat in Brunswick & Adelaide, his party will be unrepresented come May. Nationally, LibDem support has plummeted in recent opinion polls.
The Conservative / LibDem Coalition at Westminster is under attack all over the nation too. Austerity is unpopular, although deemed necessary by more than half of all voters, say polls. And Labour rather than the Coalition is blamed for the debt crisis. But the Big Society project isn't really appreciated, mostly misunderstood and receives apalling press. Already stretched charity workers are unlikely to be joined in creating such a Society by armies of stressed-out office workers who work longer hours than others in Europe. In May's local elections, both Cameron's and Clegg's parties will likely receive a hammering everywhere.
In Brighton & Hove, could Greens gain enough seats from Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives and the Independent (who represents the Brunswick & Adelaide seat) to form the city council's largest party? Very possibly.
It'll be close, and a lot depends on the extent of the collapse in the Tory vote in Central Hove where both Conservative councillors are respected and their tally may hold up better than elsewhere. Greens came third to the LibDems in Central Hove last time. If the Greens can benefit from a fall in votes from these Coalition parties they've a sporting chance of winning both Central Hove seats.
Net gains or losses could even look like this: Conservative minus 6 = 19; Green plus 8 = 21, Labour plus 1 = 14; LibDem minus 1 = 0; Independent minus 1 = 0.
An interesting prospect, with the Greens winning their first ever UK Council on this projection. Or at least being the Council's largest party. With Brighton & Hove Deputy Green Convenor, Ian Davey spearheading a campaign for a 20 mph limit, maybe cars will drive a bit slower in this seaside city in future.
The Greens put out an unusual press release recently to no doubt reassure heterosexual voters. 83.4% of their candidates in Brighton & Hove are NOT gay, said the Greens. This means that 16.6% are gay of course, but that figure represents a lower ratio than the population of the city as a whole, alleges Brighton Politics Blog. Really? That's a very surprising democratic statistic.
Brighton & Hove is not this party's only prospect, as Norwich City and Lancaster City are also prospective council gains this May for the Greens.
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